Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Win the Battle only to Lose the War


Senator Hillary Clinton has moved closer to winning the battle for the Democratic nomination - and perhaps forever etching her name in the history books as the first women and the first spouse to win the Presidency. But by fighting so aggressively against Senator Barack Obama, she is perhaps setting herself up to lose the “war” for the ultimate prize, the White House, to John McCain.

In spite of her stunning victories in the Presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio, there does not appear to be any way that Hillary Clinton can catch up to Barack Obama in the pledged delegate count.

Obama has 1340 pledged delegates to Clinton’s 1206. Thanks to the Democratic Party’s convoluted process for selecting delegates across the states, the most likely scenario is that neither candidate will make it to the Democratic convention with enough pledged delegates to win the nomination outright.

So, how can Hillary Clinton win the battle for the Party’s nomination? One way that she can do it is with the help of the Party’s superdelegates. Free to support any candidate they deem electable for the nomination - a majority of whom have vowed to support Obama - superdelegates are seated automatically, based exclusively on their standing as current or former elected and party officials. They will make up approximately one-fifth of the convention delegates.

The surest way that she can position herself to win the support of superdelegates is to damage Obama so much that she will be viewed as the only electable candidate.

The Clinton machine has been in “attack mode” ever since the South Carolina primary. They have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Obama.

Here are a few examples:

  • Billy Shaheen, the co-chairman of Clinton's campaign in New Hampshire, in an interview with the Washington Post referred to Obama’s admitted dalliance with drugs and encouraged the media to ask the Illinois Senator if he had ever given drugs to anyone (i.e., been a drug dealer).
  • In an effort to plant anti-Obama thoughts in the minds of Hispanic voters, Clinton poll advisor, Sergio Bendixen replied when asked about the strength of Clinton in the Hispanic community: "The Hispanic voter – and I want to say this very carefully – has not shown a lot of willingness or affinity to support black candidates."
  • Former President Bill Clinton drew the ire of black leaders when he described Obama’s run for the Presidency as “the biggest fairy tale I have ever seen.”
  • Playing on the Obama is a scary black Muslim theme, someone working inside the Clinton campaign sent a picture of Obama in traditional African clothing to the conservative blogger Matt Drudge.
  • Senator Clinton claimed recently in a speech that McCain was more qualified to be President than Obama.
  • The Senator from New York also questioned Obama’s ethics, repeatedly raising questions about his relationship with a disgraced supporter who is the target of a federal corruption trial in Chicago.

The recent attacks paid off in Ohio and Texas, helping her to win back some of her old supporters. She won the support of women, white men and lower-income voters in Ohio, and she won women, whites and Latinos in Texas.

However, she did not win much support from black voters. In Texas, Obama won 83 percent of black votes; in Ohio, he won 87 percent.

If dirty politics (and even playing the race card) creates the context for a backroom deal with the superdelegates that hands Clinton the nomination, all hell will break out at the Democratic convention. If the Democrats want to win in November, a backroom deal is the last thing that Party Chairman Howard Dean and other Party bigwigs want to see.

Perhaps most significantly, for every wound Clinton inflicts on Obama, she damages her relationship with the black community. No candidate for the Democrat Party can win the Presidency without the enthusiastic support of Black voters.

1 comment:

the guy that plays defense said...

Nice. I hope Mark Penn has to swallow the kitchen sink.